I will not lie; my sympathies lie with the Ukrainian people. Russia does have some legitimate complaints about how the United States and its European client states through NATO have encroached into what Russia considered its area of interest after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but that in no wise justifies the Russian assault on the Ukrainian people. However, the American/European response lies open to question as well. Here are a few observations from an old man. 

1. Ukraine, as a nation, has only existed for 40 years while Ukrainians, as a people, have been one of the many tribes/ethnicities that make up Europe for at least 1000 years and probably much longer. Europe is a mishmash of tribes and languages not unlike the rest of the world even though it pretends to be above such things. Well, Ukrainians are one of those tribes even though they have been included within other nations and empires since the collapse of the Kievan Russ a thousand years ago. Nation status and ethnic identity are two different things, and a little observation of human history tells us that identity is stronger than statehood. So, although Mr. Putin wants to absorb the Ukrainian people into the Russian people, as long as Ukrainians identify themselves as a distinct people, that will be a failed enterprise regardless Russia’s military success. 

2. We all love “David and Goliath” stories regardless the fact that the first one was not a recitation of the little guy defeating the big guy but rather the continuing story of God’s care for his elect. History tells us that the big guy almost always wins and that the more resistance the little guy puts up, the greater his injury in his defeat. Given that, the US/European encouragement for the Ukrainians to put up a good fight against the Russians before they go down in defeat will only cause greater death, injury, and destruction for the Ukrainians. Yes, they may bloody the Russians, but unless we are seriously overestimating Russian military capabilities, the Russians will win in the end. That is, they’ll win unless they lose the will to fight to the end as did the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan (two other ill-conceived invasions of sovereign states). 

3. So, is the West acting in the interests of the Ukrainian people when they send arms and ammunition to the Ukrainian government that they might continue their resistance to the invasion? Who benefits from the US paying Poland to send Ukraine MiG fighters? It will prolong the fight, no doubt. But is a prolonged fight in the interest of the Ukrainian people? You know my answer: the Ukrainian people are best served by their government coming to an agreement with the Russian government and restoring the peace. Yes, the Ukrainian government may need to retreat from their push to join the European Union and the NATO military alliance in this generation. Yes, they may need to keep themselves within the Russian sphere of influence. But spheres of influence and military alliances aren’t forever, and what’s a generation or two in the history of a people whose story spans millennia? 

4. Who then is benefiting from the US and her client states encouraging the Ukrainian government in its resistance? As I watch the price of gasoline and diesel soaring at the pump here, my first candidates are the major oil-producing nations and regions: The United States (#1), the Persian Gulf states (#3), and Russia (#2). Yes, Russia. Their oil isn’t going to magically disappear if it is not pumped to Germany and the other EU countries tomorrow. The US may embargo Russian oil, but that embargo won’t last long, and Russia will soon be able to pump away and at a much higher price. So, the #1 beneficiary of this conflict are the oil producing states and their energy corporations. Next are the weapons manufacturing countries and industries, and again the United States takes the lead with our client states and Russia again following in our train. Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and many other smaller corporations will be making bank off this conflict for decades to come. Those Polish MiGs must be replaced, and they will be replaced with more expensive, more technologically advanced aircraft from the United States. And less I forget, Ukraine is a large market for Western products and a major producer of foodstuffs. The only people I don’t see benefiting from this conflict are the Ukrainians themselves. They are the ones who will pay and continue to pay for generations to come. 

So, pray for peace in Ukraine. Pray intelligently. And be just a little cynical about the purity of national interests on every side.